ECB Economists Caution Prolonged Bitcoin Surge Poses Risk of Social Destabilization

Bitcoin benefits early adopters
Impoverishment of non-holders
ECB sees bitcoin as a threat
Economists at the European Central Bank (ECB) have just published a
study
revealing that harshly criticizes the steady rise in bitcoin prices, under the title “The Distributional Consequences of Bitcoin”. The paper suggests that the continued rise in bitcoin’s value disproportionately benefits early adopters of the cryptocurrency, to the detriment of new investors and those who do not own bitcoins.
According to Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf, Satoshi Nakamoto’s original concept of turning bitcoin into a global payment system has not come to fruition. Instead, bitcoin is increasingly seen as an investment asset that, unlike traditional assets, does not produce cash flow, interest or dividends and does not have a productive application like commodities.
The authors argue that conventional asset valuation methodologies are inadequate for bitcoin, as it does not generate tangible economic benefits. This view has been reinforced by public figures such as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, as well as celebrities such as Tom Brady, Gwenyth Paltrow and Ashton Kutcher, who promote bitcoin as an ever-growing investment.
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The study warns that the continued appreciation of bitcoin may, paradoxically, not cause a “bubble to burst,” but still economically harm those who enter the market late or do not participate at all. This phenomenon is described as a “zero-sum game,” where the benefits of early adopters are gained at the expense of new entrants.
The text also cites a direct impact on society, indicating that the enrichment of the first bitcoin holders occurs at the expense of the reduction in consumption and wealth of the others. “Therefore, ‘losing’ bitcoin is not only a lost opportunity to get rich, but represents a real impoverishment compared to a scenario without bitcoin,” the document highlights.
Furthermore, the article mentions Bitcoin’s relationship with political figures, such as former President Trump, who supported the cryptocurrency in his speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference. However, it did not detail how Bitcoin could benefit society in the long term.
The article has already caused intense reactions in the cryptocurrency market, being considered one of the most aggressive ever published by monetary authorities. Analysts, such as Tuur Demeester, see it as a clear indication that bitcoin is now perceived as a threat by central banks.
The ECB is also considering possible interventions in the bitcoin market, but stresses that measures should consider the general impacts on the economy.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed by the author, or anyone mentioned in this article, are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment or other advice. Investing or trading cryptocurrencies carries a risk of financial loss.
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European Central Bank (ECB)