Prominent quantitative analyst PlanB, known for his popular YouTube channel, recently shared an optimistic prediction for the future price of Bitcoin (BTC) in late 2024.
According to PlanB, the price of BTC is not just likely, but certain to surpass the $100,000 threshold before the end of the year. This forecast is based on the historical impact of the April halving event on BTC miner revenues.
During a strategic discussion, PlanB explained, “What’s in store for Bitcoin in 2024? It is inevitable, in my opinion, that we reach $100,000 because miner revenues need to recover. Due to the halving, mining revenue was cut in half. All mining companies and the entire industry experienced a 50% drop in revenue and need to bounce back. Historically, in the last three halvings, this recovery has taken between four to eight months. Therefore, we can expect the same this year, in 2024. The only way for mining revenues to recover is for the price to double. So, based on the current price of $60,000, we should easily surpass $100,000 this year.”
Furthermore, PlanB emphasizes the ongoing relevance of his stock-to-flow model, which links Bitcoin’s scarcity to its market value. According to this model, BTC is projected to reach an average price of $500,000 over the next four years. “I have updated the stock-to-flow model, and the parameters have not changed significantly. The target for 2024-2028 remains around $500,000 on average.”
PlanB also shared his thoughts on the post-halving dynamics and expectations for the coming years. “It is important to note that the model’s error consistently decreases after each halving. The model’s value increases with each halving, but there is always a lag for the Bitcoin price to catch up. This halving will be no different, in my opinion. We can already see the error decreasing, and it will continue to decrease over time. Of course, the price in May will not be $500,000, but over the following months, it will gradually approach the model’s price… I believe that 2025 will be the peak. Historically, the bull market peak has occurred about a year and a half after the halving, bringing us to 2025. The big question is whether the price will follow diminishing returns and stabilize around $200,000.”
At the time of publication, the price of BTC was quoted at $63,892.33, showing a 6% increase over the past 24 hours.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author or anyone mentioned in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Investing or trading in cryptocurrencies carries the risk of financial loss.
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