Billionaire Ray Dalio
Billionaire Ray Dalio stated that the recent global “market meltdown” triggered by the new round of tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump reveals much more than just temporary volatility and the traditional flight to safe assets. For him, tariffs are not just a matter of revenue collection — they also represent a strategy for economic preparation for times of conflict and even war.
Dalio argues that these measures are actually symptoms of five structural forces that are reshaping the world order. In a recent analysis, Dalio identifies five main forces that are either collapsing or accelerating transformation:
1. Collapsing monetary and economic order:
The current system, based on growing debt and imbalances between debtors (like the US) and creditors (like China), is becoming unsustainable. With deglobalization underway, international trade and finance models will have to change radically.
2. Crisis of internal political order:
Inequalities in income, opportunities and values are polarizing societies and undermining democracies. This creates space for the emergence of autocratic leaders in an increasingly unstable political environment.
3. End of US-led geopolitical order:
The era of American unipolar dominance is giving way to a new reality marked by commercial, technological and military disputes. Multilateralism is being replaced by a logic of force and national interests.
4. Most disruptive natural events:
Phenomena such as pandemics, droughts and floods are gaining weight in global dynamics, worsening economic and political challenges.
5. Accelerated technological advancement:
Technologies such as artificial intelligence directly affect the economy, geopolitics and the way countries react to environmental and financial crises.
For Dalio, these factors are interconnected and are part of a great historical cycle, which has repeated itself several times in the past — usually with outcomes such as depressions, civil wars and global conflicts.
He reinforces that excessive focus on the headlines of the moment — such as Trump’s tariffs — can divert attention from what really matters: the profound change in the structures that sustain the current world.